Here is the German state broadcaster’s summary of last March’s Chinese National People’s Congress – it feels quite negative.
And here’s JP Morgan’s report on the Chinese economy over the next five years – definitely more upbeat. This was also recorded in March,
So Xi may be entering an indefinite period of rule.
This is from this morning:
But Xi also has a Zero Covid policy which could be about to be tested.
Apparently the numbers of Chinese infected with Covid are going up.
Is this real or is it strategically placed last minute information designed to destabilise Xi before his third term announcement?
Who can say?
Either way, there will always be the issue of how China treats its ‘dissidents’.
And here’s what the US had to say about China’s military capability back in 2019.2019_CHINA_MILITARY_POWER_REPORT
The UK just published a Commons Research paper into the Integrated Review.indopacificcommonsresearch
Here is the Integrated Review itself. Its full title is Global Britain in a Competitive Age: the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.Global_Britain_in_a_Competitive_Age-_the_Integrated_Review_of_Security__Defence__Development_and_Foreign_Policy
Britain has adopted a fairly schizoid approach to China in recent years. Under Cameron and Osborne Britain got very excited about Chinese investment.
But under Trump, who famously tweeted to Americans that China was eating their lunch, relations thawed. Biden used the same “eating our lunch” expression after his first call with Xi.
Xi famously went to Davos to argue for the rules based order in direct contrast to Trump.
But bit by bit, despite following international rules and doing business healthily with the West, China finds itself manoeuvred into pariah status.
The mismanagement of the dollar is obviously an issue. There is nothing China can do about that. Then there is the need for resources. And military might. The US appear to be scared of China’s progress and view it as a rival whereas China presumably just regard the US as one of many customers. A genuinely tricky customer for sure, but a customer all the same.
The US needs China but China also needs the US.
And as for us in the UK, we just have to act as though we are as mighty as America even though we have no real say over what America do.
This set up leads to all sorts of contradictions – such as the way Chinese students effectively fund UK Higher Education establishment.
The UK Government is trying to discourage its citizens from going to university – perhaps China is aware of this and simply regards Britain as a place to send its students on a gap year.